SF MLS Home Sales: February 15, 2010 – August 15, 2010

Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by “unusual” events in any particular period or by changes in buying trends, as well as by changes in market values.

Dollar per Square Foot ($/sq.ft.) is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms and apartments built without permit, decks, patios or yards (all of which can still add significant value). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but can be unreliable or unreported altogether. (Out of every 10 sales, perhaps 6 – 8 gave square footage, from which the average is calculated.) In the charts below, neighborhoods are listed in order of median sales price. A price followed by a “k” references thousands of dollars; if followed by an “m”, it signifies millions. “REO” refers to the sale of bank-owned properties, typically pursuant to foreclosure.

$1,150,000 //Russian Hill // Broadway BR/BA: 2 units PKG: 1 Brief Description: Classic SF Units with fabulous original detail. One Vacant one rented. Property Website (in any): www.2unitsonbroadway.com

$989,000 //Castro // Ford St BR/BA: 2/1.5 PKG: 1 Brief Description: Charming top floor flat in 2-unit building. Double parlor can be used as 3rd bedroom or office. Edwardian details and hardwood floors throughout. In-unit laundry; shared south-facing yard with workshop and abundance of storage. Property Website (if Any): www.49fordstreet.com

$879,000 // South Beach // Bryant #107 BR/BA: 2/2 PKG: 1 Brief Description: Brick/Timber Converted loft 1500 sf remodeled 20ft ceilings Property Website (if any): www.355bryant.com

$829,000 // SOMA // Mission St. #513 BR/BA: 2/2 PKG: 1 Brief Description: One of a kind corner unit on the Park Level at The Soma Grand. Abundant light from large windows on two sides and a tranquil view of the fifth floor park. 11 ft ceilings and Patio Terrace. Deeeded parking

$799,000 // Inner Richmond // Balboa @ 9th BR/BA: 2/1 PKG: 2 Brief Description: Top floor Marina style condo with shared backyard. Remodeled kitchen and baths, hardwood flrs and fire place

$779,000 //Bernal Heights // Precita Ave BR/BA: 2-Unit building PKG: 0 Brief Description: Charming Edwardian with two tenants that generate good rents. Big basement that could be garage. Yard

$699,000 //Central Richmond // Balboa @ 21st BR/BA: 2/1.5 PKG: 2 Brief Description: Top floor condo in 2 unit property, shared backyard. Open living, kitchen, dining. Gourmet kitchen, in-unit laundry. Bonus room/storage dn

$698,000 // NOPA // Central BR/BA: 2/2 PKG: 0 Brief Description: On a tree-lined street located in the heart of the North Panhandle, steps to GG Park, Falletti Foods, Delessio Market and Cole Valley – is a lovely condo on two levels with direct access to an enchanting back-yard. Leased parking Property Website (if any): www.527central.com

$675,000 // Western Addition // Cleary Ct BR/BA: 3/2 PKG: 1 Brief Description: Rarely available, renovated end unit with windows on 3 sides. High up in the building; with views of Twin Peaks, the Bay and GG Bridge. Master suite with private bath. Beautiful walnut floors throughout.

$599,000 // Cole Valley // Carl BR/BA: 1/1 PKG: 0 Brief Description: Large gorgeous one BR condo in 6-unit walkup. Remolded kitchen, office nook, formal dining room w/fire place. Over 900 sq ft. Leased parking in building

Pocket Listing:
$1,099,000 //Noe Valley // Confidential/ Call Agent BR/BA: 3 /2.5 PKG: 1 Brief Description: This stunning renovated condo in Noe Valley has 3 generous bedrooms and 2 ∏ baths, as well as a separate office, large closets and is conveniently located near public transportation and shopping Property Website(in any): www.mynoecondo.com

Back-on-Market Listing:
$TBD // Oakland/Temescal // 349 42nd Street BR/BA: 3/1.25 PKG: 3 Brief Description: Charming 2-story Craftsman with all original detail, private deck. Property Website (if any): www.temescalcharmer.com

1323 Garden Street, San Luis Obispo
$1,300,000

Gallagher and Lindsey Realtors // Alameda

11381 Skyline Boulevard, Oakland CA
$3,290,000

Paragon Real Estate // San Francisco

3816 22nd Street, San Francisco (Noe Valley)
$4,800,000

1700 Monterey Boulevard, San Francisco (St. Francis Wood)
$1,950,000

The Grubb Co. // Piedmont, Berkeley, Oakland, Kensington


138 Wildwood Gardens, Piedmont
$2,395,000

Empire Realty Associates// Diablo, Lamorinda and Tri-Valley Areas


2315 Caballo Ranchero, Diablo
$1,895,000

1639 Via Romero, Alamo
$2,695,000

In the past week or two, there have been hundreds of sky-is-falling articles in every major media outlet about how home sales drastically slumped in July when compared with June and May, or as compared to July of last year, both nationally and in the Bay Area. And that this indicates that terrible times have returned to the real estate market.

But with statistics, context is everything, and these articles show a fundamental lack of understanding of current market context and, specifically, what’s going on in San Francisco.

The first chart below is of the last 2 years’ closed home sales in SF. July 2010 is indeed well below June and May 2010, as well as significantly below July 09 and July 08. However, this is almost completely a function of the fact that deals that would have naturally and typically accepted offers (gone “under contract”) in May 2010 were rushed into April so as to meet the Federal Tax Credit deadline. Because of that crush of accepted offers in April, closed sales in May and June soared way over the sales rate of past years, but the number of May accepted offers this year was much lower than normal. Typically, May is one of the highest months for accepted offers; the lowered number of accepted offers in May translated to a lowered number of July closings. Typically, July is one of the highest closed sales months because of the high number of accepted offers in May. With the unusual events this year, the numbers were thrown off – which created the dramatic percentage declines everyone is chattering on about.

Remember: closed sales are 30 – 60 days behind the market (the time of offers being negotiated and accepted). To get a sense of current market activity, one looks at accepted offers, as in the second chart below.

In the third chart, the Months’ Supply of Inventory (MSI) for SF houses and condos is shown over the past 2 years. MSI, at a moderately low 3.8 months of inventory, hasn’t budged in three months – again one can see the effect of the April tax credit rush on the chart — and it is almost exactly the same as in July 08 and July 09. (The lower the MSI, the hotter the market.)

The fourth chart shows average Days on Market (DOM) for SF houses and condos over the past 2 years. Again the Days-on-Market has been virtually unchanged for 6 months, also virtually unchanged from July of 2008 and July of 2009. (The lower the Days on Market, the hotter the market.)

The fifth chart, median sales prices for houses and condos in SF, shows virtually no change in median sales price from July of last year (though it has jogged up and down over the individual months).

None of this is to say that the market might not enter a new great depression tomorrow. It is to say that the most recent statistics don’t currently indicate any dramatic change in market conditions in San Francisco. The fact of the matter is that right now our market is relatively steady, balanced and healthy. We’ll have to wait to see what the future brings.

All information contained herein is derived from sources deemed reliable — primarily Broker Metrics — but may contain errors and omissions, and is not warranted. Sales not reported to MLS are not included in these analyses.

click for larger image	Closed Home Sales – Past 25 Months For the reasons explained above, closed home sales did decline significantly in July 2010 when compared to June and May, and when compared to July 08 & 09.
click for larger image	Homes Accepting Offers Here we see the huge surge of accepted offers in April which (stealing normal May sales activity) led to the large decline in May. Thus May’s number of accepted offers is below past years. But the number of accepted offers in June 2010 are above last year’s. And accepted offers in July are above both July 2009 and July 2008. That is not an indication of a collapsing market. Yes, the market surged in April due to the expiring tax credit, but except for the initial effect on May accepted offers(and the resulting effect on July closings), the expiring tax credit hasn’t affected the number of accepted offers in June and July at all.
click for larger image	Months’ Supply of Inventory (MSI) Since the SF home market started recovering in spring 2009 from the “crash” of autumn 2008, Months’ Supply of Inventory has been very stable, delineating a relatively stable market, running typically between 3 to 4 months of inventory. This is generally considered a moderately low MSI, signifying a relatively strong and consistent buyer demand. Again, it is unchanged for three months, and almost identical to the MSI recorded one year ago and two years ago.
click for larger image	Days on Market (DOM) Days on Market in July is virtually unchanged for the past 6 months. It is also virtually unchanged from July 08 & 09.
click for larger image	Median Sales Price: House & Condo Though median price has jogged up and down over the past 13 months, it has basically been stable. The median price in July 2010 is virtually the same as in July 2009.

$1,150,000 //Hayes Valley //Oak Street BR/BA: 0/0 PKG: 0 Brief Description: Hayes Valley Triplex, Top Floor Vacant Owners Unit, 3 Large Flats, Period details throughout, Perfect for owner-occupier or investor.

$1,070,000 //Duboce Triangle // Belcher St. BR/BA: 2/2 PKG: 1 Brief Description: Top floor contemporary condo, in 3-unit building, built in 2007. Open living/dining room areas with state-of-the-art kitchen. Spacious bedrooms with a bonus room; perfect for a den/office. Private deck and roof top terrace.

$999,000 //Lower Pac Heights // Sutter BR/BA: 2/2 PKG: 1 Brief Description: Newer Condo in a 3 unit building, bright, spacious open floor plan, large private roof top terrace.

$875,000 // Noe Valley// Alvarado BR/BA: 2/2 PKG: 1 Brief Description: Great mid century top-floor condo on Alvarado and Noe, close to 1300 square feet with direct access to outdoor space.

$759,000 //Lower Pacific Heights/ Buchanan BR/BA: 2/1 PKG: 0 Brief Description: Lovely 2bd 1ba PLUS large office condo located just steps from Fillmore Street. Period details throughout, open floor plan with leased and deeded patio – great for entertaining!

$739,000 // Miraloma Park // El Sereno Court BR/BA: 2/1 PKG: 1 Brief Description: Incredibly charming home nestled in a very special cul-de-sac with breathtaking views from the living and dining rooms. Lots of unfinished space off the garage. First time on the market since the original sale.

$649,000 //Cow Hollow // Van Ness BR/BA: 1/1 PKG: 1 Brief Description: Remodeled Kitchen, Wonderful views of the GG Bridge from Living, Kitchen and Bedroom.

$599,000 // Lake // 6th Avenue BR/BA: 3/1.5 PKG: 0 Brief Description: Shingle-Style Edwardian TIC flat with updated kitchen and baths and shared yard. 3rd year in condo lottery – Great seller financing – Low rate and OK for 10% down buyers. FIRST OPEN-Sunday 8/29.

$580,000 //Potrero Hill // 23rd St. 2 BR/ BA: 1/1 PKG: 1 Brief Description: Really pretty Victorian condominium in 2-condo bldg. This is lower unit. Really charming shared garden in rear. Big extra storage space and big parking space for this unit.

$499,000 //Union Square // Post Street BR/BA: 1 / 1 PKG: 0 Brief Description: Beautiful Art Deco Bldg-10th Floor-City Views- Remodeled One Br./One Ba.-COOPERATIVE Apt. at the Crown Towers located in the heart of San Francisco-two blocks from Union Square! (leased pkg. available 1 block away).

Pocket Listings:
$1,599,000 // Glen Park // 181 Randall BR/BA: 3/3 PKG: 2 Brief Description: Grand, restored Victorian view home on a quiet street with sustainably landscaped walk-out garden. Great Noe adjacent location.

$449,000 // Sutterfield // Sutterfield BR/BA: 1/1PKG: 1 Brief Description: Junior 1 bedroom on the 8th floor with city views. Approximately 650SF. This was a model unit, so there are many upgrades. Granite & stainless in the kitchen. Pristine condition. Washer/Dryer hook ups in the unit.

$TBD //Alamo Square // McAllister BR/BA: 3/1 PKG: 1 Brief Description: 1740 sq ft, Beautiful, remodeled, Queen Anne Victorian.

Luxury Home Values Hold Steady in Second Quarter

Prices Up Modestly in San Francisco, Flat in San Diego, and Down Slightly in Los Angeles Compared To First Quarter of Year

August 23, 2010

SAN FRANCISCO — Luxury home values in Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco were steady in the second quarter of 2010 compared to the first quarter of the year, according to the First Republic Prestige Home Index™ by First Republic Bank, a leading provider of private banking and wealth management services.

In the quarter ended June 30, 2010, the Index indicated the following:

Los Angeles area values decreased 1% from the first quarter of 2010 and declined 5.9% compared to the second quarter of 2009. The average luxury home in Los Angeles is now $1.96 million.

San Diego area values dropped 0.3% from the first quarter of 2010 and fell 2.1% year-over-year. The average luxury home in San Diego is now $1.72 million.

San Francisco Bay Area values climbed 1.8% from the first quarter and dropped 1.3% over the past year. The average luxury home in San Francisco is now $2.59 million.

“Luxury homes in most high-end communities in California held their value in the second quarter of 2010,” said Katherine August-deWilde, President and Chief Operating Officer of First Republic Bank. “Prices have stabilized since the beginning of the year. Although buyers are somewhat uncertain due to current economic conditions, low mortgage rates are attracting buyer attention.”

First Republic Bank produces the Prestige Home Index each quarter with Fiserv CSW Inc., a leading provider of automated property valuation services and home price metrics to U.S. financial institutions. Historical results of the Index, which has tracked luxury homes since 1985, are accessible at www.firstrepublic.com. First Republic Bank is an active lender in the luxury home market for both primary residences and vacation homes.

San Francisco Bay Area Values

Values in the San Francisco Bay Area increased for the second straight quarter.

“As the volume comes back, we’re expecting to see modest appreciation over the next 24 months,” said Mark McLaughlin, CEO of Pacific Union International & Christie’s Great Estates. “The second quarter was substantially better than what I think the third quarter will be. But it is hard to predict because there has been so much disruption to the market cycle.”

Ana Dierkhising of Hill & Co. Real Estate in San Francisco said affordable loans are stimulating demand. “Historically low interest rates are keeping buyers in the marketplace. Buyers are pickier and are deducting for any challenges to the property. However, they are definitely buying if they feel the property is worth it. There have been multiple offers in Pacific Heights and Presidio Heights — the places with unique views and one-of-a-kind properties.”

In the South Bay, the market was not as active as in San Francisco. “As soon as we entered the summer, the markets definitely started to slow,” said Benjamin Guilardi of Alain Pinel Real Estate in Los Gatos. “People really do want to act and have the ability to act, but they are paralyzed by uncertainty. We’re not missing wealth. We’re missing confidence.”

About The First Republic Prestige Home Index

The First Republic Prestige Home Index™ is the first statistical model of its kind customized to measure changes in homes valued at more than $1 million in key California urban markets. Some common features of luxury homes in the Index: 3,000 to 6,000 square feet, three to six bedrooms, and three to six bathrooms. San Francisco Bay Area properties include a cross-section of luxury homes in Alamo, Atherton, Belvedere, Danville, Healdsburg, Hillsborough, Lafayette, Los Altos, Los Gatos, Mill Valley, Moraga, Orinda, Palo Alto, Piedmont, Portola Valley, Ross, St. Helena, San Francisco, Saratoga, Sonoma, Tiburon and Woodside. Properties in Los Angeles represent a cross-section of luxury homes in Arcadia, Beverly Hills, Calabasas, La Cañada Flintridge, Encino, Los Angeles, Malibu, Marina del Rey, North Hollywood, Pacific Palisades, Pasadena, Playa del Rey, Santa Monica, Studio City and the West Los Angeles enclaves of Bel Air, Brentwood and Westwood. San Diego properties represent a cross-section of luxury homes in Carlsbad, Coronado, Del Mar, Encinitas, La Jolla, La Mesa, Poway, Rancho Santa Fe, San Diego and Solana Beach. In producing the Index, Fiserv CSW Inc. draws upon its economic database and years of experience in tracking single-family home values; collects and cross-checks data from multiple sources; achieves a weighted balance of validation elements such as repeat sales, comparable sales, and physical home characteristics; and combines this with First Republic’s extensive local market knowledge.

About First Republic Bank

Founded in 1985, First Republic Bank and its affiliated companies provide private banking, private business banking and private wealth management. First Republic specializes in exceptional, relationship-based service offered through preferred banking or wealth management offices in San Francisco, Palo Alto, Los Angeles, Santa Barbara, Newport Beach, San Diego, Portland, Seattle, Boston, Greenwich and New York City. First Republic offers a complete line of banking products for individuals and businesses, including deposit services, as well as residential, commercial and personal loans. More information is available on the Bank’s website at www.firstrepublic.com.

About First Republic Private Wealth Management

First Republic Private Wealth Management is the investment management, trust and brokerage group of First Republic Bank. First Republic Private Wealth Management offers objective advice and fully customized solutions with the same level of exceptional client service that has been the hallmark of First Republic Bank for more than 25 years. First Republic has the flexibility to provide individuals, families, businesses, endowments, schools and non-profit organizations with appropriate choices that responsibly meet a client’s specific investment objectives.

Contact:
Greg Berardi
Blue Marlin Partners
(415) 239-7826
Email Greg Berardi

Market trend charts that track by month and by quarter are more useful, but these weekly-bar charts are snapshots of most recent activity.

Homes Accepting Offers: Relatively stable


Homes For Sale: Declining as summer proceeds. As is typical.

New Listings Coming on Market: Declining as summer proceeds. As is typical. Usually the next big rush of new listings occurs after Labor Day.


Sold Listings vs. Expired/Withdrawn Listings: for the past 3 weeks, more listings are expiring or being withdrawn than closing escrow.


Percent of Listings Accepting Offers: Relatively stable

Median Sales Price for SF Houses: for the week ending August 15th, the median sales price was almost exactly the average median over the past 6 months.

What factors were considered when drafting new elementary attendance areas?

• Balancing enrollment with the size of the school.
• This included taking into account the size and location of schools, where students live now and where enrollment changes are expected in the future, historical choice patterns, and historical enrollment patterns.
• Avoiding major roads, highways, and natural topography such as parks.
• Proximity and creating single, undivided attendance areas around a school (i.e., avoiding non-contiguous attendance areas).
• Supporting SFUSD preschool to Kindergarten pathways.
• Maximizing diversity. This included taking neighborhood demographics into consideration.

http://sfusd.ggnet.net/resources/changes.php

16030 Broadway Terrace, Oakland
$1,798,000

Chase International // Lake Tahoe, Reno, Truckee and Squaw Valley

2855 E Lakeridge Shores, Reno, NV
$1,849,000

455 Fairfield Blvd, Incline Village, NV
$3,750,000

15580 Glacier Way, Truckee, CA
$1,895,000

11271 Alder Hill Road, Truckee, CA
$1,577,000

3600 West Lake Blvd., Homewood, CA
$2,850,000

1640 South Peak Dr., Glenbrook, NV
$3,995,000

Empire Realty Associates// Diablo, Lamorinda and Tri-Valley Areas

2345 Mt Diablo Scenic Blvd., Diablo, CA
$2,495,000

Paragon Real Estate // San Francisco

481 Day Street, San Francisco (Noe Valley)
$1,695,000

85 Buena Vista Terrace, San Francisco (Buena Vista/Ashbury Heights)
$2,595,000

$985,000 //Potrero Hill // Arkansas BR/BA: 2/1 PKG: 1 Brief Description: FAB location, sweet home, gorgeous deck and garden Property Website (if any): www.363Arkansas.com.

$799,000 //Inner Richmond //Confidential Address BR/BA: 2/1 PKG: 1 Brief Description: Top floor Marina style remodeled condo.

$699,000 // SOMA // Dow Place BR/BA: 1/1.5 PKG: 1 Brief Description: This 2 level loft condominium has almost 1,300 SF and the largest floor plan in the building. Set at the Southeast corner of the building with downtown views and loads of light. FIRST OPEN is Sunday, Sep 13.

$695,000 //Central Richmond //Confidential Address BR/BA: 2/1.5 PKG: 2 Brief Description: Top Floor Marina Style remodeled condo, all remodeled.

$575,000 //Cole Valley // Confidential Address BR/BA: 1/1 PKG: 0 Brief Description: Gorgeous condo in heart of Cole Valley in 6 unit building. Lsd pkg within building, has been secured since purchase in ’04- will remain.

Pocket Listings:
$2,150,000 // Noe Valley // Confidential/ Call Agent BR/BA: 4/2.5 PKG: 2 Brief Description: Expertly designed by award winning Zack/De Vito Architects in 2004, this dramatic light infused 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath modern townhouse consists of clearly organized spaces with a focus on details and timeless finishes. The immense living space is impressive and is accentuated with polished concrete floors, soaring ceilings, exposed steel beams and opens to the landscaped tiered gardens.

$1,095,000 // Lake District // 7th Ave BR/BA: 3+/1.5 PKG: 2 Brief Description: Large two story 3+ bedroom top-floor condo in a gorgeous Arts & Crafts building on a beautiful block just off Lake St. Remodeled kitchen & bath, excellent floor plan, bright & open, 2 large decks, office/family room, in-unit w/d, large shared yard, and close to Mt Lake Park. Easy to show.

$799,000 // Sunset // 19th Ave (x Kirkham) BR/BA: 3/2 plus studio penthouse PKG: 1 Brief Description: Built in 2000, this bright and spacious 3bd /2ba (plus studio penthouse) condo is just a block away from Irving St. shops and restaurants. Great layout, ~2,000 sq.ft., in-unit w/d, 2 roof decks. Condo will be vacant and studio penthouse w/separate entrance is currently tenant occupied at $1,200/mo. Easy to show.

$795,000 //Lower Pacific Heights // Confidential/Call Agent BR/BA: 2/1 PKG: 0 Brief Description: Lovely 2bd 1ba plus large office condo located just steps from Fillmore Street. Period details throughout, open floor plan and deeded patio – great for entertaining! Leased parking.

$TBD // Potrero Hill // 19th Street BR/BA: 3/2 PKG: 1 Brief Description: 3200 square-foot contemporary home on Potrero Hill’s North Slope with spectacular panoramic views. Very convenient to shops and restaurants of 18th Street.

$TBD// Russian Hill // Broadway BR/BA: 3/2 & 2/1 PKG: 1 Brief Description: Fabulous Edwardian 2 units with original woodwork & large lot. 1 vacant 1 tenant occupied. Great Location. Ready end of month.